Grattan on Friday: Budget blues as government reels under the blows
Prime Minister Tony Abbott has made a few embarrassing mistakes in a week set aside for selling the budget.
AAP/Rob Blakers
How bad has this budget been for the government? You only
had to listen Nine’s Today program on Thursday morning to get the
answer.
“Will you make it to the next election as leader?” Abbott was asked
by Karl Stefanovic. “I expect so,” the Prime Minister replied. “I think
the Australian people are sick of governments which change their leaders
mid-term.”
To have the durability of Abbott’s leadership a topic of discussion
well short of the first anniversary of his election would have seemed
inconceivable when he swept into office last September.
Abbott, Treasurer Joe Hockey and other ministers have been out in the
traditional post budget “sell” these past days, but things actually
look much worse for the government now than they did a week ago.
Abbott had another, viral, “Tony moment” with his wink
when a pensioner said she worked on a sex call line because she needed
the money (one political source says he often winks in a quite
disconcerting manner). Confusion about individual budget measures has
not receded but increased, and Abbott didn’t help by fluffing a couple
of details. The backlash has intensified rather than subsided. And all
that’s before the horse trading with the Senate begins.
In Coalition ranks some admit the budget was disproportionate to the
size of the fiscal problem - which the government exaggerated anyway.
Members of the public haven’t bought the “crisis” talk, and as their
individual circumstances become clearer many are horrified at what they
will lose.
The budget is seen as harsh rather than just tough; the real sting,
coming through strongly in polling, is that it is regarded as unfair.
Some government MPs had thought people might have accepted that the
medicine had to be swallowed (they’d accepted the line themselves) and
so are surprised by the intensity of the anger.
The budget has been sold poorly but its deeper problem involves the judgement (or lack of) that went into it.
The tone has jarred. In retrospect one has to ask whether the “age of
entitlement” language – which reflects Joe Hockey’s philosophy, which
turned into his mission and his passion – has been counterproductive.
It is one thing to say to people that when the budget requires repair
their benefits need to be trimmed, or that pensions can’t increased so
fast.
But declarations about having to end “the age of entitlement” carry
pejorative overtones; it sounds like voters are being condemned in some
moral sense for accepting handouts. In fact the middle class largesse in
family payments and the like reflected the view of John Howard (whose
cabinet contained Hockey and Abbott) that assistance should be provided
to people for the cost of children.
Too much money was splashed, but would Hockey have done better to have nuanced the rhetoric of the turnaround?
Then, however, he would not have been able to make his point with the drama he wanted.
If the budget had limited its targets and aimed at them a little more gently, the government would be in a better place.
But Hockey was on a crusade and Abbott signed up to it. Just why the
Prime Minister did so to such a degree isn’t entirely obvious. A glance
at Battlelines reminds that his present stance on issues such as
federalism and family payments are quite different to his past ones.
Changing circumstances don’t explain everything. Abbott might have
chosen to be where many of his Liberal colleagues are or had a genuine
ideological makeover.
When he embraces positions he espouses them with the fervour of the
convert, one explanation for his willingness to walk over the blazing
coals of his broken promises, sustaining burns that will scar.
Late this week, the government got whacks from David Gonski over its approach to school funding and from the Australian Medical Association over the harm the co-payment could do to the disadvantaged.
The AMA said some instances were being reported where the
announcement effect (the co-payment isn’t to start until mid next year)
had put people off going to the doctor.
Meanwhile the states' rage about the funding squeeze on their money
for schools and hospitals continues, while students revolt against the
higher education changes.
How does the government begin to climb out of the hole it’s in? Some
within it say it must just stick to the messages about debt and deficit.
Perhaps - but there is no reason to believe people will buy them. They
may have already decided it is false advertising.
There might be some room for selective tinkering, for example more protection for the vulnerable on the co-payment.
But to have any rethink on pensions for example, where the changes
come after the next election, would produce more problems, going against
what the government says is vital – to make the system sustainable long
term. The pension measures sit there like a time bomb for the 2016
election.
Inevitably some changes will be made to various measures in the
Senate negotiations. Those battles – in many cases with Clive Palmer –
will guarantee the pain of individual items will continue to get maximum
publicity.
The government’s hope that eventually the public will be impressed
enough with its performance to forgive and forget looks, at least at
this moment, excessively optimistic.
There are too many nasties in the pipeline, cutting in later this
term, or looming as election issues. Also the premiers, especially the
three Liberals with elections coming, are likely to continue unloading
on the government. And Abbott’s limitations as an incumbent - as
distinct from an opposition leader – exposed this week raise doubts
about how well he can conduct a fightback.
The messages from the last few days are very much about Abbott. He
obviously did not run a “reality test” on the budget. He was accident
prone when in a corner. He has less authority than a leader would want,
facing an ambitious agenda.
And as a Liberal backbencher noted: “There’s a kind of feeling he’s not John Howard, in terms of judging the [public] mood”.
Listen to Michelle Grattan’s newest podcast, with ACT Chief Minister Katy Gallagher, here.
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